In our previous update, we dove into our continued bullish case for risk assets, based on the view that positive fiscal and monetary policy and liquidity dynamics would persist. Â Since then, we have witnessed a significant shift in key data, which has altered our short-term expectations toward a more cautious outlook. We still maintain […]
Macro Update: A multi-duration view of the evolving macro picture Read More »
In our latest report, we outlined our expectations for Trump’s economic plans, examined the key upside and downside risks, and highlighted the most likely outcomes. Our core expectations were: Short-term pain with a fast recovery. Short- to medium-term pain with a more drawn-out recovery. We nailed the short-term pain call. Markets rebounded rapidly off the
Macro Update: Do markets still have room to run? Read More »
In our previous market update we highlighted the key drivers of the transitory risk-off inflation market regime which occurred in January and February, those being: Persistent dollar strength. Inflation Fears The Feds pivot from asymmetrically dovish to neutral. High economic uncertainty and the wide distribution of probable economic outcomes. Additionally, we dove into our moderate
Macro Update: The two most likely scenarios for the economy and markets Read More »
In our previous macro update, we highlighted the bull case going into 2025 – the US debt ceiling situation and the resulting TGA spend down – as well as the key macro risks to keep an eye on, those being: Persistent dollar strength, deterioration in global liquidity conditions, and rising inflation forcing the Fed to
Market update: navigating bullish crypto news in an uncertain macro environment. Read More »
In our previous update, we highlighted our views on U.S. growth expectations, our directional view for the dollar, and reiterated our bullish macro outlook. Since then, we have seen further resolution to the U.S. growth scare, which has driven a prevailing rally in the dollar. This significant dollar strength has been a key culprit for
Macro Update: The three key risks to watch for in 2025 Read More »
In our last market update we discussed the markets overblown fears that the slowing economy is signaling an imminent recession, along with also looking at the persistent trend in global liquidity. We also expressed our view that economic growth would generally tend to surprise to the upside in Q4, of which the weekly unemployment claims,
Market Update: This macro factor has been suppressing Bitcoin Read More »
In our latest macro update we dove deep into the situation with japan and fears of a slowing US economy. Our view was that the quick selloff in risk assets was a bump in the road caused by an unwinding of leverage and the short volatility trade. We also looked at US and global liquidity
A lot has happened in global markets over the last couple of weeks, causing much confusion and uncertainty among investors. A handful of crucial contributors triggered this market sell-off, which was then exacerbated by a few additional elements, all culminating in the fastest downturn for global risk assets since COVID-19. Economic Warning Signs Outside of
What’s next for markets following the Japanese market crash and US economic concerns? Read More »
It’s Official, the launch of multiple Ethereum ETFs is now scheduled for July 23, 2024, with the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) confirming the date. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved at least three funds, with indications of up to eight ETFs launching concurrently. The final approval from the SEC is expected
Expectations and Analysis for the Ethereum ETF Launch Read More »
A lot of different catalysts are coming together at once this week and the crypto market looks to be heating up. Not much has happened in the market for the last couple of months following a major run earlier in the year. But with a good CPI report last week, a more dovish Jerome Powell,
These converging catalysts could drive a crypto market rally Read More »
