The Shift Research
(TSR) Process
Simplify crypto and start growing
your portfolio with confidence.
The Thesis Behind The Shift Research
The goal of The Shift Research is to utilize quantitative tools and an evidence-based process to capitalize in the crypto market.
We believe that there is a ton of money to be made in the crypto markets, however, there is also a ton of money to be lost. Not to mention there is a ton of sanity to be lost when trying to follow this new and extremely volatile asset class.
So we poured our knowledge, experience, and resources into building quantitative tools and a process that helps us trade the crypto markets while avoiding the large drawdowns in bear markets.
The way we look at it is if we play conservative and follow the trends we can turn the momentum and volatility of this market into an asset. *What we are not trying to do, is perfectly time tops and bottoms.*
Breaking Down The Process
So, how are we executing this strategy?
Asset Selection
We use top-down crypto market research to identify the sectors and tokens that present the biggest opportunities in this space.
Macro Analysis
We closely follow global macro dynamics, such as growth, inflation, liquidity and positioning to stay positioned on the right side of the macro risks.
Quantitative Trend Following
We use our quantitative positioning model which provides bullish, bearish, and neutral signals to stay on the right side of momentum for each individual asset.
Trusting The Process
Last but not least we manage our portfolio through this process by unemotionally cutting losers, and riding the most powerful force in financial markets – Momentum – taking profits along the way.
Our goal is to be stone cold unemotional about this process. Everyone in this space rides the waves of emotion, laughing on the way up and crying on the way down. We prefer to make money and more importantly, keep it.
It is not perfect, you will have losers, but the goal in financial markets is never to be perfect, it’s to stick with your process and MAKE MONEY.
The Quantitative Tools That Help Us Execute Our Process
The key part of our process is using quantitative tools and techniques to aid us in demonstrably outperforming in a landscape that is overrun by memes, emotion, and hype – both to the upside and to the downside.
Quantitative Positioning Signals Model
This model is currently our bread and butter. ‘The TSR Quantitative Positioning Signals’ uses volatility and momentum data to identify shifts in an assets trend. We use the quantitative positioning signals tool to help us manage risk and stay on the right side of the trend in each individual asset.
Economic Regime Model
The economic regime model tracks the rate of change in growth and inflation to help us identify and prepare for changes in economic environments. This helps us systematically ensure we stay bullish during favorable economic environments and most importantly avoid negative environments.
Market Regime Model
We’ve built the Market Regime Model by backtesting many different global assets across the economic regimes and then we create a scoring system for each regime using our quantitative positioning signals. This Tool helps us understand which economic regime asset markets are trying to price in, which helps us stay on the right side of broad market trends.
Crypto Market Strength Index
Our ‘TSR Crypto Market Strength Index’ uses our quantitative positioning signals across the top 50 assets in crypto in order to measure market strength and weakness from the middle out. This tool helps us stay on top of short-term shifts in momentum across the crypto market
Summing It Up
All of these tools (and new tools to come) help the TSR team and community stay on the right side of both macro risks and crypto market trends. Because macro is such a huge driver of crypto, it is extremely important to systematically track and identify where we are and where we’re headed in order to avoid taking huge losses as a result of ignorance.
This is not to say we know everything, a key to success is staying humble and always scrambling to identify our blindspots, analyze our mistakes, and improve our tools and process.
“Knowing how to deal with what you don’t know is much more important than anything you know” – Ray Dalio on the principles of success
In a new and inefficient market, such as crypto, there is a huge opportunity to substantially outperform by using macro and quantitative tools and an extremely boring and agnostic approach.
Our goal isn’t to jump on hype trains and ride the emotional waves of social media, but to use data and evidence to pinpoint opportunities, position ourselves to take advantage, and then take our profits.
It’s as simple as knowing and following the key whats and whens of investing.
What to buy, When to buy, and When to sell
Join The Journey And Take Advantage Of The Shift